Opinion
“Silly analysis.
Robot RAM needs will exceed everything else on Earth, as you need the robots to be on physical substates in order to shape atoms.
Super intelligence needs will vastly exceed that, but ~100% of SI will be deep space compute. Obviously.”
— Elon Musk, 26 October 2026 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“I'd be stunned if anyone has a robot that is remotely competitive with Optimus when we go, when we start delivering it to customers, which is likely to be towards the end of next year.”
— Elon Musk, 22 October 2026 · Watch: Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call (2026) · 1:02:18 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“I like I need to have sufficient voting control in the companies to you know still be in charge.”
— Elon Musk, 20 October 2026 · Watch: Elon Musk: "Humans Won't Be in Control" When AI Becomes Smarter Than Us · 22:06 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“…once you have a robot that can manipulate atoms can shape objects the value of the of the intelligence becomes exponentially greater.”
— Elon Musk, 20 October 2026 · Watch: Elon Musk: "Humans Won't Be in Control" When AI Becomes Smarter Than Us · 15:59 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value.
The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space.
And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow.”
— Elon Musk, 18 October 2026 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“There won’t be lines of software as we know them, just machine code”
— Elon Musk, 15 October 2026 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“We cut our RAM in half for the Tesla AI5 chip (now 72GB of LP5) and 1/3 for AI6 (now 144GB of LP6).
This was the only way to get enough volume for Optimus production and greatly reduces cost.
As it turns out, we think this will have a negligible effect on Optimus performance, as memory bandwidth is a bigger limiting factor than total memory storage (bandwidth was held constant).”
— Elon Musk, 1 October 2026 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“…there will be at least a billion robots in 10 years and that those robots will be at least five times the output of a human…”
— Elon Musk, 1 September 2026 · Watch: G20 Innovation Ministerial Summit — Remarks (North Carolina) · 8:53 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“I mean, I do struggle with this question. I think people will, will find ways to be happy in the, in the same way that say people who retire seem to be relatively, you know, fairly happy even though they’re not working. But I think the reality is that you, humans will not, there won’t be anything that humans can do that, that the AI and the robots can’t do better. One analogy might be gardening, you know, where you don’t have to grow your own fruits and vegetables. You can just go buy them from the store. But sometimes people like to grow their own fruits and vegetables and make dinner for friends, and it’s kind of a nice touch.”
— Elon Musk, 6 August 2026 · Watch: YouTube (18:57) ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“…once you’ve got, once you have a robot that can manipulate atoms, can shape objects, the, the value of the, of the intelligence becomes exponentially greater…”
— Elon Musk, 6 August 2026 · Watch: YouTube (16:36) ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“AI+Robots will be able to do everything, resulting in universal high income. Work will be optional.”
— Elon Musk, 2 July 2026 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“No, Optimus production will be extremely slow at first, as everything is new. This is not like making a car.”
— Elon Musk, 1 July 2026 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“…some sort of humanoid recursive miracle…”
— Elon Musk, 5 February 2026 · Watch: YouTube (1:41:23) ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“Optimus will be the biggest product ever”
— Elon Musk, 4 February 2026 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“I think with the advent or continued growth of AI and robotics, I think we actually are headed to a future of universal income, not universal basic income, but universal high income.”
— Elon Musk, 28 January 2026 · Watch: Tesla Q4 and full year 2025 earnings call (2026) · 6:12 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“People don’t understand how hard manufacturing is. It will take many years before enough robots are built to matter.”
— Elon Musk, 22 October 2025 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“AI and robots will replace all jobs.
Working will be optional, like growing your own vegetables, instead of buying them from the store.”
— Elon Musk, 21 October 2025 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“Optimus is a hard problem in engineering, design and especially manufacturing”
— Elon Musk, 7 September 2025 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“The safety driver is just there for the first few months to be extra safe. Should be no safety driver by end of year.”
— Elon Musk, 4 September 2025 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“There will be universal high income (not merely basic income). Everyone will have the best medical care, food, home, transport and everything else. Sustainable abundance.
AI+Robots will be able to do everything, resulting in universal high income. Work will be optional.”
— Elon Musk, 24 August 2025 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year.”
— Elon Musk, 23 July 2025 · Teslarati ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“Not correct. We are building a production line to enable 1000/month Optimus production, but that is still many months away.”
— Elon Musk, 16 May 2025 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“I will have an Optimus dance troupe on stage with me at the Tesla shareholders meeting”
— Elon Musk, 14 May 2025 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“…anyone here tells you they can predict with precision the production ramp of a truly new product is, doesn't know what they're talking about.”
— Elon Musk, 22 April 2025 · Watch: Tesla Q1 2025 earnings call (2025) · 1:08:50 ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“…the Model Y's that we're talking about in being autonomous in Austin in June are the Model Y's we make currently.”
— Elon Musk, 22 April 2025 · Watch: Tesla Q1 2025 earnings call (2025) · 50:18 ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“Starship will hopefully depart for Mars at the end of next year with Optimus explorer robots!”
— Elon Musk, 10 April 2025 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“…the training needs for Optimus, for Optimus humanoid robot are probably at least ultimately 10x what's needed for the car…”
— Elon Musk, 29 January 2025 · Watch: Tesla Q4 and full year 2024 earnings call (2025) · 14:16 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“We tried desperately with Optimus to use any existing motors, any actuators, sensors. Nothing worked for a humanoid robot at any price. We had to design everything from physics first principles to work for a humanoid robot.”
— Elon Musk, 29 January 2025 · Watch: Tesla Q4 and full year 2024 earnings call (2025) · 21:38 ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“Optimus is a very sophisticated robot. It will be immensely difficult to get the cost to $20k. Not easy at all, but it will eventually happen.
Production volume needs to be above 1M/year for that.
Price will be driven by demand, but eventually even price will get to ~$20k.”
— Elon Musk, 26 November 2024 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“…they're missing the AI brain and they're missing the ability to really scale to very high volume production.”
— Elon Musk, 23 October 2024 · Watch: Tesla Q3 2024 earnings call (2024) · 24:46 ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“The cost of products and services will decline dramatically and basically anyone will be able to have any products and services they want.”
— Elon Musk, 10 October 2024 · Watch: Tesla We, Robot event · 22:07 ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“I think this will be the biggest product ever of any kind…”
— Elon Musk, 10 October 2024 · Watch: Tesla video (21:29) ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“Eventually, you will probably be able to upload a good approximation of your memories & mind state to “the cloud” with the ability to download it to a humanoid robot.
You obviously won’t be quite the same as you are today.”
— Elon Musk, 17 August 2024 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Prediction
“…we expect to have several thousand Optimus robots produced and doing useful things by the end of next year in the Tesla factories and then in 2026 ramping up production quite a bit.”
— Elon Musk, 23 July 2024 · Watch: Tesla Q2 2024 earnings call (2024) · 10:54 ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“I think everyone on Earth is going to want 1. There's 8 billion people on Earth, so that's 8 billion right there.”
— Elon Musk, 23 July 2024 · Watch: Tesla Q2 2024 earnings call (2024) · 33:57 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“It's really intended to be able to be backwards compatible with human tasks.”
— Elon Musk, 23 July 2024 · Watch: Tesla Q2 2024 earnings call (2024) · 23:12 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“Synthetic, validated against reality by humanoid robots”
— Elon Musk, 9 July 2024 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“I think it might be the biggest asset value appreciation in history when that thing happens when you can do unsupervised, full self driving.”
— Elon Musk, 23 April 2024 · Watch: Tesla Q1 2024 earnings call (2024) · 30:55 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“Complexity per unit mass is much higher with humanoid robots, but still I think it ends up costing less than half of a car”
— Elon Musk, 26 March 2024 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“There will be universal high income, not basic, in a positive AI future.
No scarcity, except that which we define to be scarce.
In that scenario, everyone can have whatever goods & services they want.
It is less clear how we will find meaning in a world where work is optional.”
— Elon Musk, 26 December 2023 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“I'm worried about humans declining quite significantly in the years to come because the birth rate is so low.”
— Elon Musk, 21 December 2023 · Watch: X Spaces with Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) (2023) · 1:06:18 ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“…given that economic output is number of people times productivity, if you no longer have a constraint on people effectively you've got a humanoid robot that can do as much as you'd like.”
— Elon Musk, 18 October 2023 · Watch: Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call (2023) · 24:50 ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“So basically anyone will be able to shut it off locally and you can't change that. Even if you like a software update, you can't change that. It has to be hard coded.”
— Elon Musk, 18 October 2023 · Watch: Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call (2023) · 26:12 ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“…we definitely need to be very careful with Optimus at scale once it's in production, that you have a hard coded way to turn off Optimus.”
— Elon Musk, 14 July 2023 · Watch: xAI launch X Spaces (2023) · 1:00:57 ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“Making great actuators for a humanoid robot is a surprisingly hard problem”
— Elon Musk, 5 November 2022 · Post on X ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“I think one of the things that's going to be important is to have a localized ROM chip on the robot that cannot be updated over the air. Where if you, for example, were to say, “Stop, stop, stop,” if anyone said that, then the robot would stop, you know, type of thing. And that's not updatable remotely. I think it's going to be important to have safety features like that.”
— Elon Musk, 14 April 2022 · Watch: Elon Musk talks Twitter, Tesla and how his brain works -- live at TED2022 · 7:09 ↗ · In the archive
Opinion
“It needs to be able to do things that people do… It needs to be able to work with tools, carry a bag, that kind of thing.
Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels…”
— Elon Musk, 19 August 2021 · Watch: Tesla video (2:08:00) ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“In the future, physical work will be a choice. If you want to do it, you can. But you won’t need to do it.”
— Elon Musk, 19 August 2021 · Watch: Tesla video (2:10:36) ↗ · In the archive
Fact
“I think the upgrading of the fleet to full self driving essentially with an over the software update, I mean, may go down as the biggest asset value increase in history.”
— Elon Musk, 22 July 2020 · Watch: Tesla Q2 2020 earnings call (2020) · 15:43 ↗ · In the archive